Fantasy Insider: Q-school graduate projections Q-school grad Harris English won on the Nationwide Tour in 2011 as an amateur before turning pro. Dec. 9, 2011 By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Columnist As golf around the world wraps up another year, the window reopens for full-season fantasy golf formats. Draft Day 2012 is circled on personal agendas everywhere. Got a fantasy question for Rob? Click here to e-mail him. You can also follow Rob on his Twitter account. PGA TOUR qualifying school added 27 names to our pool. While 29 graduated, Roberto Castro and Mark Anderson were already fully exempt via the Nationwide Tour. Castro successfully improved his number, in the process earning a bump in my projection. See below. If you play Yahoo! only, use this feature as reference material. Connect yourself with names you don't know and gain a sense for how the most popular might influence your league. As you know, any angle in strategy can make the difference. My takeaway from this 2011 class is "top heavy." Looking back for a moment, nine grads from 2010 finished inside the top 125 in earnings in 2011; two won tournaments. The year before, 11 cracked the top 125 on the money list. However, I've projected just six to land inside the top 125 next year. I'm going to be low and it's likely that not all six will fulfill their projections, but remember that this isn't about predicting outcomes literally. These capsules are intended to help you assign relative value, particularly in the first two months of the year. At the conclusion of the West Coast Swing, all graduates -- Nationwide Tour and q-school -- will be reshuffled in order of earnings. Those at the bottom will be limited in starts, so there is more pressure to perform, thus diminishing fantasy value. Those that fail are unlikely to see regular time until most fields balloon to 156 in late April. Brendon Todd Age as of January 1, 2012: 26 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 858 2012 fantasy projection: 126-150 Rob's Riff: Tricky call. I loved him entering his rookie season of 2009 as he evolved naturally on the Nationwide Tour the previous year after a stellar career at the University of Georgia. Instead, he finished 186th on the money list (in '09) and has stumbled the last two years. He placed a disappointing 84th on this year's Nationwide Tour money list despite missing only one event, and then failed to qualify for the finale. That he begins 2012 atop the reshuffle begs for an investment at some point. The last three q-school medalists retained their cards -- Harrison Frazar (2009), Troy Merritt (2010), Billy Mayfair (2011). (Todd started 38th in 2009 and climbed no higher than 26th.) However, until Todd illustrates consistency at the game's highest level, he's worth ignoring in shallow leagues. Stephen Gangluff Age as of January 1, 2012: 36 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 1,087 2012 fantasy projection: 151+ Rob's Riff: Veteran gamers may remember this guy. He first owned a PGA TOUR card in 2002 and went 10-for-27 with three top 25s. He's toiled in obscurity since, hopping on and off the Nationwide Tour where he's never won and has just five top 10s in 104 starts. If you latch on, it's for the plethora of starts he'll receive on the West Coast Swing. Bobby Gates Age as of January 1, 2012: 26 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 370 2012 fantasy projection: Top 125 Rob's Riff: Closed out q-school with a bogey-free, 6-under 66. He started 2011 slotted 30th in the reshuffle before climbing as high as eighth at one point. The rookie then finished 126th on the money list, just $1,431 outside the top 125. This time around, he begins fifth in the reshuffle and with one arguably successful season under his belt thanks for a trio of top 10s. Had 17 eagles on the year, two more than anyone else. He can move it off the tee, making him more dangerous on par-72 tracks. Seung-yul Noh * * * ROOKIE * * * Age as of January 1, 2012: 20 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 101 2012 fantasy projection: Top 125 Rob's Riff: While I can blame the fact that he's yet to post a top 25 in 11 PGA TOUR starts on youth, we need proof that his game translates to the United States. That six of those starts have occurred in majors (he made the cut in five) is testament to his talent, as is a European Tour victory (in early 2010) at the age of 18 and a finish atop the Asian Tour Order of Merit the same year, but the South Korean will be swimming in the deepest pool in 2012. The value here is in his fully exempt status. No doubt he'll encounter adversity but expect him to contend on occasion, especially when he can mash it off the tee. That sets him up for a strong start on the mainland. Jarrod Lyle Age as of January 1, 2012: 30 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 423 2012 fantasy projection: 126-150 Rob's Riff: Second straight year he's finished fifth at q-school. I was an early adopter when he was a rookie in 2007 but he's finished outside the top 150 in earnings in four seasons with some form of status on the PGA TOUR. In 94 starts overall, he's missed exactly half of his cuts and has only four top 10s. Perhaps a season as a newlywed is the elixir. The Aussie got married on Dec. 10. Tommy Biershenk * * * ROOKIE * * * Age as of January 1, 2012: 38 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 461 2012 fantasy projection: 126-150 Rob's Riff: Carded five rounds of 70 or lower at q-school. That's the kind of effort that illustrates a sneaky all-around game. (At q-school in 2010, he shot par or better in every round but finished one stroke too high.) Other than a lack of experience on the PGA TOUR (three starts, two missed cuts, one withdrawal), statistically he has no glaring weaknesses. It's the kind of package that usually plays out well in full-season fantasy formats. The South Carolinian ranked no lower than 35th in earnings at any time on the Nationwide Tour in 2011, eventually settling at 31st. However, despite positive bents, until we witness a closer's mentality, rely on proven success. Vaughn Taylor Age as of January 1, 2012: 35 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 307 2012 fantasy projection: Top 125 Rob's Riff: The poster boy for why q-school exists. You're already familiar with his success. Until this year, he was one of the steadiest performers with a PGA TOUR card, having cracked seven figures in earnings for seven consecutive years. Still in his prime, expect a rebound. Bob Estes Age as of January 1, 2012: 45 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 316 2012 fantasy projection: 126-150 Rob's Riff: This is a nice boost from his conditional status in 2011, but his days as a fantasy mainstay are in the past. Because he could snipe a couple of top 10s on nerve alone, he's worth a late flier in deep formats, but his ceiling is lower than most in terms of dividends. However, shrewd gamers might want to ride out three starts as that's how many he's been afforded on a medical extension. Should he earn $74,062, he'd be elevated to the Major Medical category for the remainder of 2012 and, therefore, exempt from the reshuffle. Brian Harman * * * ROOKIE * * * Age as of January 1, 2012: 24 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): n/a 2012 fantasy projection: 126-150 Rob's Riff: After winning the U.S. Junior Amateur in 2003, it seems that he's be around forever, but he's been a pro for only 26 months. After an impressive amateur career, he tore up the eGolf Professional Tour the last two years (15 top 10s in 24 starts) before his giant leap at PGA West. With a pedigree that precedes him, he won't slide in most drafts but you can be choosy given his inexperience on the PGA TOUR (1-for-4; T71 at the 2004 Buick Championship). Marco Dawson Age as of January 1, 2012: 48 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 454 2012 fantasy projection: 151+ Rob's Riff: I've long held that the casual fan has more in common with non-winners like Dawson that have gone about their careers in the absence of much intrigue. He's blue collar through and through with 204 cuts made in 388 events. Just seven of his 18 career top 10s have occurred in his last 215 starts; that's roughly one of every 30. He regained some mojo on the Nationwide Tour this year, finishing 32nd on the money list, and still has a little gas in the tank to tackle longer tracks, but gamers don't invest in guys his age that have never won. Sang-moon Bae * * * ROOKIE * * * Age as of January 1, 2012: 25 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 30 2012 fantasy projection: Top 125 Rob's Riff: Closed with a 6-under 66 with two eagles and six birdies at PGA West. On the strength of three wins, three seconds and a third, cleared 151 million yen on the Japan Golf Tour in 2011; no one else hit nine figures. While his splits are impressive on his home circuit, taken as constants as it relates to PGA TOUR standards, his game off the tee is concerning. He's very average in length and seriously below average in accuracy. His greens in regulation percentage would sit in the bottom half but he'd excel in putting. So, you're leaning on his Official World Golf Ranking to start. He's already exempt for TPC Blue Monster and the British, and will soon earn tee times at the Masters and the WGC-Accenture Match Play. He's also all but a lock for the PGA Championship. Not a chance in the world that he'll fall into sleeper range in any draft. Kevin Kisner Age as of January 1, 2012: 27 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 390 2012 fantasy projection: 151+ Rob's Riff: In my 2011 projections for 2010 Nationwide Tour grads, I proclaimed him as the "predominant sleeper of the bunch." Well, he started rough and wound up with just one top 25 in 24 starts on the PGA TOUR this season, settling a distance 181st on the money list. His touch around the greens didn't quite translate to the next level as I expected but he put up a good fight with his putter. He'll tee off in 2012 slotted 23rd in the reshuffle so he should play at least five times on the West Coast Swing, just as he did in 2011. He'll need to do better than a 1-for-5 this time around to earn our attention. Jeff Maggert Age as of January 1, 2012: 47 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 679 2012 fantasy projection: 126-150 Rob's Riff: While I can't get too excited about a guy who hasn't finished inside the top 120 in earnings since 2007, you have to love his grit. He missed four months in 2011 due to an injury in his right shoulder for which he had surgery, and then went 1-for-4 in the Fall Series only to regain fully exempt status at PGA West where he recorded a pair of bogey-free 66s. He'll be a source of a few cheap cuts made and perhaps one top 10. One bonus: the veteran will start the year out of the Major Medical category. Should he earn $567,086 in his first nine starts, he'll retain status; otherwise, he'll fall into the reshuffle. Charlie Beljan * * * ROOKIE * * * Age as of January 1, 2012: 27 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): n/a 2012 fantasy projection: 151+ Rob's Riff: The Gateway Tour veteran has made two starts on the PGA TOUR, both in the U.S. Open; he missed the cut in each. He's also a career 1-for-2 on the Nationwide Tour. Until he impresses us in 2012, he's worth ignoring on draft day. Roberto Castro * * * ROOKIE * * * Age as of January 1, 2012: 26 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 369 2012 fantasy projection: 126-150 Rob's Riff: As I mentioned in my 2012 projections for Nationwide Tour grads here, I'd have more interest if he rose in the ranks at q-school. Lo and behold, he was the only of five from his class at PGA West that improved his number, climbing 15 spots to 29th in the starting reshuffle. Therefore, I've upgraded my projection. Moreover, I'm impressed by his Renaissance Man appeal. Still, gamers are advised to ease into an investment. William McGirt Age as of January 1, 2012: 32 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 438 2012 fantasy projection: Top 125 Rob's Riff: Arguably provided more added value for fantasy gamers than how it translated on the PGA TOUR money list where he finished 141st as a rookie in 2011. He started the year slotted third in the reshuffle, which propelled him to 32 starts. He made the cut in 19 which is strong, but had just four top 25s, none of which were top 10s. Then, with his back against the wall on the eve of the PGA TOUR Playoffs for the FedExCup, he snuck in at No. 125 and played his way into the second round. A perfect 4-for-4 in the Fall Series exempted him into the final stage of q-school where he opened with a 65 that included 10 birdies. There's just too much potential firepower here to pass on draft day. Harris English * * * ROOKIE * * * Age as of January 1, 2012: 22 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 282 2012 fantasy projection: Top 125 Rob's Riff: At first glance of his body type and stride, he reminds me of Cameron Tringale who is two years older. Tringale struggled as a PGA TOUR rookie in 2010 before blossoming as a q-school grad in 2011. English enters with a similar pedigree, albeit from the University of Georgia. (Tringale is a Georgia Tech product.) But the Bulldog already has a Nationwide Tour victory (as an amateur) in his bag. In his second start as a pro, he lost in a playoff on the Nationwide Tour, then shared third place two weeks later, eventually finishing 65th in earnings in just five starts. As is always the case with the supremely talented newcomers, experience at the game's highest level is all English lacks. He'll start 2012 in the 33-hole of the reshuffle but anyone that has done his homework will not allow him to tumble into steal territory at your draft. Patrick Sheehan Age as of January 1, 2012: 42 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 894 2012 fantasy projection: 151+ Rob's Riff: Played his final 32 holes of q-school in bogey-free 10-under to finish T18. We've seen him quite a bit on the PGA TOUR since his rookie year of 2003. He's made 120 of 185 cuts and cleared $4.8 million. In 20 starts on the Nationwide Tour in 2011, a T30 was his best result among seven cuts made. With his recent long-term results and age, fantasy gamers can sidestep the veteran. Greg Owen Age as of January 1, 2012: 39 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 621 2012 fantasy projection: 126-150 Rob's Riff: No stranger to the big time. The Englishman earned his card for the sixth time in eight years. Arguably best known for the infamy of three-putting from about 40 inches at Bay Hill in 2006. Last played from the reshuffle in 2009 when he started 18th and finished 11th, eventually ranking 109th in earnings. In 2012, he'll begin 37th in reshuffle, so he should get into four events on the West Coast Swing. He has a solid record at Pebble Beach, so given its slot on the schedule, it's the kind of converging dynamic that he could parlay into a full agenda for the remainder of the year. Journeymen like Owen are commodities in deeper fantasy formats. However, feel free to maintain a short leash in the absence of a solid start. Edward Loar * * * ROOKIE * * * Age as of January 1, 2012: 34 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 1,228 2012 fantasy projection: 151+ Rob's Riff: Yet another Oklahoma State product with a PGA TOUR card. Before turning professional in 2000, the lefty enjoyed a superb career that included five collegiate victories, a smattering of wins in top-shelf amateur tournaments and an appearance in the Walker Cup. He was also teammates of Charles Howell III and Bo Van Pelt on the Cowboys' roster. Half of Loar's 10 PGA TOUR starts occurred in 2000. He's played the Nationwide Tour at least semi-regularly just twice since and didn't crack the top 100 in earnings either time. I'm mildly interested if he's unlocked something but prior to q-school there wasn't anything on which to hang our visor. Daniel Summerhays Age as of January 1, 2012: 28 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 412 2012 fantasy projection: 151+ Rob's Riff: Failed to capitalize on a good start as a rookie in 2011 and finished 171st on the money list. Made only eight of 29 cuts and went 0-for-4 in the Fall Series. It cannot be overlooked that his best result on the PGA TOUR was at PGA West, the same site as q-school. Until he flashes more consistency -- something a second full year on TOUR could accommodate -- gamers can invest elsewhere. Scott Dunlap Age as of January 1, 2012: 48 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 845 2012 fantasy projection: 151+ Rob's Riff: Fantasy leagues aren't built on or decided by 48-year-olds that haven't played the PGA TOUR full-time in 10 years. He enjoyed a nice spike in his late 30s but has been relegated to the Nationwide Tour ever since. He's finished outside the top 75 in earnings on the developmental circuit in each of the last three years, including 113th in 2011. Will Claxton * * * ROOKIE * * * Age as of January 1, 2012: 30 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 1,228 2012 fantasy projection: 151+ Rob's Riff: Of the 29 grads, no one closed higher than his 5-over 76-73=149. No relation to Paul Claxton who sits second all-time in Nationwide Tour earnings. Will went 4-for-9 on the Nationwide Tour in 2011, earning $16,870. He's 1-for-1 on the PGA TOUR (T67, 2011 Transitions). Pass. Richard H. Lee * * * ROOKIE * * * Age as of January 1, 2012: 24 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 555 2012 fantasy projection: 151+ Rob's Riff: Even though he begins his first year on the PGA TOUR buried in the reshuffle (46th), he arrives with some intrigue due to finishing 37th in earnings on the Nationwide Tour in 2011. Among his seven top 25s was a solo second at the Mexico Open. He's the only q-school grad of his class that played his final round at PGA West's Stadium Course. (The other 28 played the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course in the sixth round.) Lee closed eagle-birdie-par-birdie-birdie and led the field with three eagles on the week. I suspect that he'll pop up occasionally but like many in his location of the pecking order with zero cachet, he'll need a hot start to earn fantasy value. Mark Anderson * * * ROOKIE * * * Age as of January 1, 2012: 25 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 431 2012 fantasy projection: 151+ Rob's Riff: One of two 2011 Nationwide Tour grads to finish inside the top 25 at q-school, but unlike Roberto Castro, Anderson failed to improve his number. He'll start in the 42nd position of the starting reshuffle. Therefore, I stand by what I said about him in my 2012 projections for Nationwide Tour graduates here; that is, leave him be on the West Coast Swing. I'll chalk up his success at PGA West as a reason why I'll be proven wrong and won't hesitate to pounce if the situation makes sense. Alexandre Rocha Age as of January 1, 2012: 34 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 672 2012 fantasy projection: 151+ Rob's Riff: I was quite bullish on the Brazilian after he closed 2010 q-school with three consecutive 68s to earn his first PGA TOUR card. Alas, he went 11-for-22 with one top 25 (T20 at Disney World) and finished 184th on the money list. A second straight season on TOUR should result in a improvement but he's not worth the flier coming out of the 48th slot in the reshuffle. He started 43rd last year and climbed no higher than his final position at 37. John Huh * * * ROOKIE * * * Age as of January 1, 2012: 21 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 541 2012 fantasy projection: 151+ Rob's Riff: While I'm expecting a rough introduction for the California kid, he's another reminder that we can't out-and-out dismiss unknowns with South Korean heritage. See Sunghoon Kang and Bio Kim who combined for 11 top 25s in 2011. Huh will have a hill to climb coming out of the 49th position in the reshuffle, second lowest of any rookie (Joe Affrunti has been given a medical extension), so leave him on the board on draft day. Nathan Green Age as of January 1, 2012: 36 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 572 2012 fantasy projection: 126-150 Rob's Riff: The Aussie loved himself some Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West. In his final two rounds on the track, he was bogey-free 11-under including a closing 66 to climb 36 spots on the leaderboard onto the number to regain his card. His wayward game tee-to-green puts too much pressure on his putting, but when his ball-striking is dialed in, he'll contend. However, he's finished 144th and 168th in earnings the last two years on the PGA TOUR. Only gamers in formats that dip this low in the pecking order should consider a flier on the one-time winner. Colt Knost Age as of January 1, 2012: 26 Official World Golf Ranking (as of Dec. 5, 2011): 426 2012 fantasy projection: 151+ Rob's Riff: The big fella is arguably still best known as the 2007 U.S. Amateur champion. Since, he's finished outside the top 170 on the PGA TOUR money list twice as a Nationwide Tour graduate, so perhaps this conduit to a PGA TOUR card will translate like a change of scenery. But it's not that he hasn't made noise, and on multiple occasions. Graduating from q-school is impressive enough, but he won twice on the Nationwide Tour in 2008, he was a 54-hole co-leader at the 2009 Shell Houston Open and he pushed Brendan Steele to a playoff at the 2010 Nationwide Tour Championship. Knost's track record is easy to analyze; that is, look for him to reward you in a given week, just not often enough to reward fantasy gamers. Exacerbating his value is that he starts at the bottom of the reshuffle, making him virtually un-ownable on the West Coast Swing. Still, that he's making his third go-around at the age of 26 bodes well for the long-term.