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2005 PGA Tour season kicks off /막 올린 2005년 PGA 투어
lucasyun
2005-01-06
2005 could be the year Sergio Garcia breaks through with a major championship. (Stuart Franklin / GettyImages)
Just 25 days after the last putt dropped at the Target World Challenge, here comes the PGA Tour again.
Clearly, there's not much of an off-season any more and we'd almost feel sorry for the players. But then we remember 1.) 77 players won at least $1,000,000 in 2004 and 2.) nobody on the PGA Tour worked (at least in an official capacity) more than 35 weeks out of the year.
So in lieu of our sympathy, we're offering our predictions for the 2005 season, which gets under way Thursday with the winners-only Mercedes Championship at The Plantation Course at Kapalua.
What will Vijay Singh do for an encore?
Unfortunately, after an incredible season that saw Singh win nine times ?including the PGA Championship ?while becoming the PGA Tour's first $10 million man, there's really nowhere for him to go but down.
Singh will also get to experience what Tiger Woods dealt with following his run in 2000 and 2001 ?the expectation that he's going to win every time he tees it up. Not to mention the inevitable criticism that will follow when he doesn't, which should do wonders for Singh's already-prickly relationship with the media.
There's also no precedent for a 41-year-old player (Singh will turn 42 before the West Coast swing is done) enjoying this kind of success. The four other players to win at least nine times in a single season in the modern era ?Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan (twice), Sam Snead and Woods ?all did it before their 40th birthday (in Woods' case, a good 15 years before). The fact remains, age is going to catch up with Singh before too long; could it happen as soon as 2005?
Now, Singh practices too hard and plays too often (a career-high 29 times in 2004) not to win a Buick Open or an 84 Lumber Classic here or there. In fact, it'd be surprising if the he doesn't pick up multiple victories in 2005.
There just isn't going to be another three-month run where Singh wins six of eight tournaments.
Will the real Tiger Woods please stand up?
There's a danger in reading too much into Tiger Woods' year-ending wins at the Dunlop Phoenix Open and the Target World Challenge, which were, after all, a Japan Tour event and a limited-field, silly-season tournament in which Woods only had to beat 15 other golfers.
But for pretty much the first time since the 2003 season, there's hard evidence to back up Woods' contention that he's close to putting everything together.
"I had to take baby steps and I did that all year," Woods said after his Target Challenge win. "I was working in the right direction. Sometimes it might have been just three, four holes in one round that I played great, the way I know I can, and then the rest of it wasn't so good. Then eventually it became nine holes and 18, then 36 and 54, now a whole tournament. It's exciting."
Well, it's certainly exciting to PGA commissioner Tim Finchem, who's facing the unpleasant task of negotiating a new television deal without the benefit of a dominant Woods racking up wins and Nielsen points. It may not be so exciting to the rest of the PGA Tour, which has taken advantage of Woods' slump; 10 different players have won a major title since Woods won the 2002 U.S. Open ?seven of them first-time major champions.
Now, we're never going to see the Woods of 2000 and 2001 again. Get used to it.
For starters, the intimidation factor simply isn't there any more. Then there's the matter of the competition; the top five of Woods, Singh, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Retief Goosen may be the strongest accumulation of talent at the top since Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Gary Player and Tom Weiskopf were duking it out during the 1970s.
That being said, we're fully expecting a well-motivated Woods (after all, he had to watch two of his top rivals, Mickelson and Singh, win majors in 2004) to win four tournaments in 2005 and his major-less streak to come to an end at St. Andrews.
Will Phil Mickelson add another major to his resume?
The temptation is to say that now that the phrase "best player never to win a major" label is no longer set off by commas following Mickelson's name in every pre-major feature, Lefty will begin racking up Grand Slams by the fistful. Or at least at the healthy rate of one per year.
And the U.S. Open does return to Pinehurst No. 2 this year, where Mickelson battled Payne Stewart down to the last putt on the 72nd hole of the tournament in 1999 before losing in dramatic fashion. If ever a golfer was owed a win at a particular venue, it would be Mickelson at Pinehurst.
But let us play devil's advocate for a moment. If Mickelson doesn't fire that ridiculous 31 on the back nine at Augusta, his near-Grand Slam in 2004 (he missed out on winning the other three majors by a combined five strokes) becomes just the latest ?not to mention the most heartbreaking ?chapter in Mickelson's long litany of major failure.
Now, this isn't meant as an indictment of Mickelson, mind you, or to suggest that he's going to revert to his pre-Masters form. It's simply an indication of how tough it is to win just one of these things, let alone a second.
It's also worth noting that Mickelson didn't win again after Augusta, so it's unclear exactly how much momentum he's riding into the 2005 season.
So while it's a safe bet that Mickelson will win more major championships before he's through, we just don't see him doing it this year.
Will a European player win a Grand Slam in 2005?
It clearly didn't matter much in the final score, but Europe didn't have a single major champion on its Ryder Cup roster in 2004. And while Tiger's major-less streak (now at 10) gets far more attention, Europe is currently on a 0-for-21 run; Paul Lawrie's victory at the 1999 British Open is the continent's most recent triumph.
But as the Ryder Cup clearly showed, Europe is ready to unleash a number of young, up-and-coming players on the PGA Tour.
However, the one we're expecting to end Europe's drought in 2005, while still young, hasn't been merely up-and-coming for quite some time.
Sergio Garcia.
2005 could be the year Sergio Garcia breaks through with a major championship. (Stuart Franklin / GettyImages)
When Mickelson won at Augusta, the mantle of "best player without a major" arguably fell to Garcia, which is saying something considering he was just 24 at the time.
Like Woods, Garcia has recently undergone a dramatic swing change. Unlike Woods, Garcia is already reaping tangible results from his tinkering, winning a pair of tournaments in 2004 after going winless in 2003. He then followed that up with a third strong Ryder Cup performance.
Since pushing Woods to the limit at the 1999 PGA Championship, Garcia has eight top-10 finishes at the majors (in 21 tries). We're betting his new-found consistency (at least relatively speaking) enables him to break through with a win.
Will the U.S. fare better in the Presidents Cup than it has in the Ryder?
While Europe has been kicking American butt every two years, the U.S. has fared much better in the Presidents Cup, going 3-1-1 in the history of the event.
And the event returns to Robert Trent Jones Golf Course in Manassas, Va., where the U.S. hasn't lost in three Cups, racking up a 58-38 advantage over the Internationals.
That's the good news. Ready for the bad news?
The International team will be absolutely stacked. The top four players in the standings ?Singh, Els, Goosen and Mike Weir ?have all won major championships since 2002. No. 5 is Adam Scott, who won the so-called fifth major (The Players Championship) last year. Each of the top seven had at least one win in 2004 and combined for 19 (a number admittedly boosted by Singh's nine wins, but an impressive total nonetheless).
With that lineup at captain Gary Player's disposal, the Americans may be hoping and praying for a draw this time around.
Which foreign power has the best chance to equal Australia's seven wins in 2004?
Well, we could take the easy way out and say Australia again. But we won't.
And while South Africa offers up Els and Goosen, both of whom will be on the short list of favorites for all four major championships, there just isn't the depth of talent coming out of that country yet.
Instead, we're looking for a British invasion to sweep American shores (at least the ones that border fairways) in 2005.
Luke Donald has already won on the PGA Tour (the 2002 Southern Bureau Classic), and he's coming off a WGC World Cup victory with playing partner, Paul Casey. And speaking of Casey, the Arizona State grad (where he broke a handful of Mickelson's school records, by the way) is primed to break through with a win on Tour, assuming he can handle the torrent of heckling that is undoubtedly heading his way after the anti-American comments he made in an interview last year.
Ian Poulter is perhaps best known for his wardrobe (i.e. the skin-tight Union Jack pants he donned at the British Open), but he's got the game to back it up. And then there's Justin Rose, who is finally showing the consistency (he made 18 of 22 cuts while winning $1.2 million in '04) he lacked after he went pro following his stunning showing at the 1999 British Open.
And if we include all of the United Kingdom, the number of wins could grow. Northern Ireland's Darren Clarke is on the verge of greatness. His countryman Padraig Harrington will be playing more on the PGA Tour in 2005 in the hopes of picking up his first win on American soil. And with his divorce behind him and another dominant Ryder Cup performance under his belt, it wouldn't be the biggest surprise (oh, it'd be a surprise ... just not the biggest one) to see Colin Montgomerie to finally get the win that's eluded him throughout his storied career.
Todd Behrendt is a senior editor for FOXSports.com.
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