회원가입
계정 찾기 다시 시도 아이디 또는 비밀번호가 일치하지 않습니다!

정희수 부동산 교실

chungheesoo
EA508F7B-D42B-4B37-B600-C4F998349616
58255
Y
메뉴 닫기
오늘 방문자 수: 334
,
전체: 337,211

정희수 부동산 교실
메뉴 열기
chungheesoo
chungheesoo
102823
9193
2023-01-26
Itaewon Disaster: Who killed 158 children?(2)

 

The system killed them and the wrong leader killed the system

 

By Joseph H. Chung (정희수) Professor of economics, Quebec University in Montreal (UQAM)

 

(지난 호에 이어)

 

The location of Kim Soon-ho, the chief of the Department of Police of the Ministry of Interior and Public Safety was not known. This department was created illegally to control the police force to be politically used.

 

On the other hand, the chief of Yongsan fire station, Choi Seon-beon, went to the scene too late to save the lives.

 

Lee Sang-min, Minister of Interior and Public Safety was nowhere. After all, he is the minister responsible for public safety in Korea.

 

Nobody knows exactly where the president, Yoon Suk-yeol was during mass killing. In the final analysis, he had the ultimate responsibility of the disaster.

 

So, there is no doubt that the public safety system failed to save lives. But, we ask questions why the system failed.

 

2. Reasons for the Failure of the Public Safety System

We know how the tragedy happened. But, no body know why it happened. However, many tend to relate the disaster to unusual and irrational behaviours of the president, Yoon Suk-yeol, his wife, Kim Gun-hee and shaman called, Cheon-gong.

 

Let me begin by introducing Yoon Suk-yeol, president of South Korea since May 9 this year.

 

First, he knows very little about economics, national security, international relations and, especially public administration.

 

Second, he is turning the time machine backward; he is living in Korea of fifty years ago of military dictatorship. He has become a prosecutor and spent all his life of suspecting people as possible criminal, indicting, investigation and sending them to prison.

 

He looks at the world through the eyes of a prosecutor not through the eyes of a politician.

 

To make the matter worse, he tries to solve political issues as criminal issue. He lacks the qualities of understanding, communicating and compromising with others, the qualities essential for a good political leader.

 

Third, he has been a worst biased prosecutor. His mother-in-law is a well established criminal, but she has never been fully punished for her crimes including the embezzlement of public funds.

 

His wife is notorious for all kinds of illegal and immoral activities including the manipulation of stock prices and the plagiarism of her academic degrees in corrupted ways. She has never been indicted because of the influence of her husband.

 

Fourth, he is even suspected as alcoholic. He often misses major decision making meetings due, probably, to his alcoholism.

 

Fifth, this is very serious aspects of Yoon Suk-yeol. In Korea, there is a shaman called Cheon-gong who pretends to be the last saviour of humanity sent by God.

 

In a country where the freedom of religion is guaranteed, the existence of the shaman Cheon-gong is not a legal problem.

 

What follows will certainly scandalize the world. It is a sad reality in a country like Korea which is 10th largest economy in the world.

 

What I am saying about the shaman, Cheong-gong, is based on several information sources including KBS report, MBC report, the recent Ohmynews report and even the ParisMatch report (November 4) on the Itaewon tragedy.

 

To be sure, in a democratic country like Korea where religious freedom is guaranteed, shaman can exist.

 

But, the problem is the fact that the president and his wife are faithful followers of the shaman, who declared that Yoon's wife, Park Gun-hee had been attending for years his lectures, while the president meets the shaman often. Therefore, one can say that the shaman and the president's couple are very close to each other.

 

To make the matter worse, the shaman can influence the major decisions of the president and his wife. A recent poll (das-bei-da-238) shows that 54.5% of the respondents says that the shaman exert influence on the president's policy decisions.

 

The shaman Cheon-gong's vision is that the world should be ruled by "jung-bop" (rightful laws) which is not spelled out. But, it seems that the shaman wants to rule the world according to his perception of what is right or wrong with the help of somebody. Somebody seems to be Yoon Suk-yeol.

 

Here are some known cases showing the close relationship between the Shaman and Yoon's couple.

 

• The Shaman asked Yoon to leave the position of prosecutor general and run for the presidential candidacy, which Yoon did.

 

Cheon-gong asked Yoon to stamp the Chinese figure "king"(王) on the palm of his hands. Yoon showed it during the televised presidential debate. This Chinese figure is supposed to bring good fortune.

 

• Once Yoon became president, the shaman told Yoon not to move into the Blue House (Korean White House) because evil spirits of many dead people may get into Yoon, which Yoon obeyed.

 

• The shaman would have asked Yoon to install the president's office to the Yongsan area (south of Han River).  Yoon Suk-yeol moved his presidential office to the Yongsan area.

 

The Shaman is reported to have said about the Yongsan area.

 

"The dragon will come to the Yongsan area with precious stones in its mouth."

 

The dragon seems to be Yoon and the precious stones are supposed to new order created by Yoon.

 

Yoon Suk-yeol and his wife went to London on September 18 to attend the funeral ceremony of late Queen Elizabeth II. He is suspected to have not gone to the funeral chapel because Cheon-gong told him that there was evil spirit in funeral chapel.

 

We see now that Yoon Suk-yeol makes important decisions which are likely to be suggested (or ordered) by shaman Cheon-gong.

 

So, we may say that Yoon's decisions are beyond the usual rational boundary of reasoning.

 

Coming back to the root cause of the Itaewon disaster, those who should be responsible for the tragedy should admit their responsibility and ask for pardon of the surviving families and friends and to Korean population. But they have not done so. (다음 호에 계속)

 

 

 

<저작권자(c) Budongsancanada.com 부동산캐나다 한인뉴스, 무단 전재-재배포 금지 >

chungheesoo
chungheesoo
102651
9193
2023-01-19
Itaewon Disaster: Who killed 158 children?(1)

 

The system killed them and the wrong leader killed the system

 

By Joseph H. Chung (정희수) Professor of economics, Quebec University in Montreal (UQAM)

 

Introduction

 

In the evening of October 29, 130,000 men and women wearing Halloween costumes went to Itaewon area in Seoul to have fun and enjoy the freedom from 3-year COVID-19 confinement.

 

The joyful laughter, merry songs and cry of freedom suddenly turned into voice of despair, fear, agony and last fading voice of dying children calling for loved family and friends.

 

On narrow and steep alley, tens of thousands of people were pushing and shoving and the people at the lower part of the alley crushed to death under the weight of layers of human bodies.

 

It was a man-made disaster which should not happen, which could not happen. But it happened and it took away 158 precious and young lives including 26 foreign persons and injured 198 people.

 

The world is asking how such disaster can happen in a country like South Korea which is known as model country for economic development, security, safety and democracy, especially under the liberal government of Moon Jae-in.

 

The question the world is asking why this man-made disaster happened in South Korea.

 

What I am going to say may disturb some and even infuriate some others. But, it is about the time that the world should be aware of the disturbing political reality which is, in the final analysis, responsible for the disaster.

 

I am writing this paper hoping that the world opinion will be formed and put pressure on the South Korean government so that hidden truth be discovered, the responsible people be punished and similar man -made disaster never happens again.

 

I am offering my sincere condolence to the surviving parents including 26 surviving parents of foreign countries.

 

I hope also that the surviving parents of foreign countries join Koreans in fighting for the truth of why and how their children died.

 

This paper examines the following

• Failure of the Public Safety System

• Reasons for the System Failure

• Impact of the Disaster on Politics of South Korea

 

1. Failure of the public safety system

The low priority given to the public safety is responsible for the disaster. It is argued that, in this paper, the public safety failed due to absence of public safety planning.

 

A good system of public safety planning should include the following: prior safety planning, disaster management, post disaster analysis and judicial measure designed to prevent similar disaster in the future.

 

But in this section, I will deal with the prior planning and disaster management.

 

Prior planning: The prior planning for the event of Halloween festivity should be the responsibility of the mayor of Yongsan District where Itaewon is located. But, the mayor for some mysterious reasons failed to do so.

 

This is difficult to understand in view of the fact that Yongsan District (ward) had undertaken, for years in the past, large scale events in the Itaewon area including the Halloween festivities.

 

What the Yongsan District government did was the planning only for   traffic ticket control and rubbish collection excluding safety planning for the Halloween crowd.

 

In other words, there was no prior safety planning at all to protect the young Halloween lovers. This is incomprehensible in view of the fact that a very large crow was expected to converge toward the Itaewon area.

 

Management of the disaster: In the absence of prior safety planning, it was not easy to conduct properly the crowd management. Before anything else, the communication network did not work.

 

Somebody should have reported the danger and somebody should have sent help. In this case, the help was the Korean National Police Special Operation Unit (KNPSOU). In fact, somebody reported the danger, but no help came.

 

On the day of the disaster, October 29, already at 16:00, the Halloween crowd started to increase in size. By 18:00, on a narrow and steep alley, there were so many people that somebody called the 112 emergency call center to explain the situation and asked for help which did not come.

 

The following is the list of SOS calls: 18:34: 20:09: 20:33: 20:53; 21:00; 21:02; 21:07; 21:10; 21:51; 22:11. There were 11 calls. On this list, one call is missing.

 

We can see that the calls for help became dramatically more frequent after 21:00. This shows that the number of deaths was increasing rapidly after 21:00.

 

As the time went by, there were 30 people in a space of 8 m2.. A large crowd was going up the alley, while equally large crowd was coming down the alley. And somewhere in the alley, the two crowds collided and many people fell and crushed to death by the weight of layers of human bodies. They could not breath, they died.

 

The hellish drama continued until 22:30 and 158 young lives were sacrificed because of the stupidity, the cruelty and irresponsibility of adults who should have known better.

 

The deployment of one special operation units of police (KNPSOU) could prevent the disaster. They were near the scene of the disaster, but they did not come, because somebody decided not to send them to the scene of the disaster.

 

In short, the disaster management went nowhere. Those who could prevent the disaster were not duty at crucial time.

 

Park Hee-yong, mayor of Yongsan District government saw the massing crowd, but she was not there to prevent the tragedy.

 

Lee Jae-hee: Yongsan District Police chief was aware of the crisis and asked Seoul Metropolitan Police agency for the deployment of the KNPSOU specialized in managing large crowd. But no help came.

 

Ryu Mi-jin, chief of the 112 call center was absent in the room managing the emergency calls.

 

Kim Gwang-ho Seoul Metropolitan Police chief was not present in his office. He was at home at the night of October 29 and received the report after midnight.

 

Yoon hee-geun, chief of the National Police Agency went to his home town and camping sight at the night of October 29. He received the report after midnight.

 

 

 

<저작권자(c) Budongsancanada.com 부동산캐나다 한인뉴스, 무단 전재-재배포 금지 >

chungheesoo
chungheesoo
102480
9193
2023-01-12
The Legacy of Shinzo Abe: Road to Self-Destructive Harakiri Holy War 2.0(6.끝)

 

Remember! The history can repeat itself. The dreadful nightmare of Japanese holy war can happen again. May God save Korea !

 

Joseph H. Chung, Ph.D. (정희수), Professor of Economics, Quebec University in Montreal (UQAM)

 

 

(지난 호에 이어)

 

The anti-China war may take the following process.

 

First, Washington or Tokyo would induce China to attack Taiwan. There are five conditions under which China is supposed to arrack Taiwan: declaration of Taiwan independence, internal turmoil within Taiwan, deployment of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), Taiwan's military alliance with a foreign country and 1992 intra-China consensus for "One-China policy."

 

Of these five conditions, Taiwan's independence declaration is not likely to happen, because President Tsai ing-wen herself says that Taiwan is de facto independent.

 

When Washington judges Japan's readiness, Washington or Japan might provoke the violation of one of the three conditions, namely, internal turmoil, deployment of WMD or military alliance of Taiwan.

 

The Taiwan-China war will become a war between the Taiwan Alliance (U.S. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan) and China; it will become TA-China war. The big question is whether the South Korean armed forces will join.

 

For the moment, the possibility of the ROK army's participation in the Taiwan-China war is great, because the new South Korean government is run by the pro-Japan conservative South Koreans (PJCSK) led by Yoon Suk-yeol who regards himself as the obedient servant of Tokyo and Washington.

 

But, if the liberal government of the Democratic Party retakes the power in five years, the situation will be different.

 

It is not easy to predict the outcome of the TA-China war. But, it is likely that the economies of the three Asian countries and Taiwan will be so devastated that it will take long time to recover. It is possible that the Japanese economy will be so damaged that Japan might lose its status of super military power.

 

As for the Unites States, the destruction of China and Japan means the elimination of present enemy (China) as well as the potential enemy (Japan). So, the U.S. will be the winner.

 

There are reasons for the U.S. to come out of the TA-China war with little damage. To begin with, the U.S. territory is far away from the battle ground. It is likely that the role of the U.S. may be limited to the provision of weapons and air and sea battle support without sending GIs to the battle ground. The actual shooting and killing will be dome by the Japanese and Korean soldiers. Here we see the tragic scenario of the Ukraine-Russia War repeats itself.

 

As indicated above, it is likely that no one will come out winner except the U.S. However, if Japan survives the TA-China war and if it has some economic and military capability left, the next target of conquest will be North Korea. Here, Japan needs the support of South Korea and Washington.

 

As long as the pro-Japan conservative government rules South Korea, Japan can count on the participation of ROK armed forces to join the attack against North Korea.

 

Now, the American armed forces are likely to allow the Japanese invasion into North Korea, because Washington must reward Japan for its participation in the TA-China war.

 

The irony is that the history may repeat itself. We remember the Taft-Katsura Agreement of 1905 signed by Katsura Taro, prime minister of Japan and William Howard Taft, secretary of war of the U.S. By virtue of this agreement, Washington let Japan to swallow Korea, while Japan overlooked the American colonization of the Philippines.

 

However, if North Korea is attacked, it will fight back, even with nuclear weapons, if needed. The cost of Japan's war against North Korea will be too high to continue its Holy War 2.0.

 

Conclusion

The Neo-Meiji Restoration Group (NMRG) led by the Kishi Nobuske-Shinzo Abe line political forces has been preparing the second holy war.

 

Several measures have been applied to prepare the holy war. The Nippon Gaigi has been able to hide from the Japanese people Japan's worst crimes committed during WWII so that they would support the second holy war. The return of Shinto provides radical nationalism needed for holy war 2.0.

 

The acceleration of remilitarization, global lobbying campaign for the justification of the first holy war, the Washington-Tokyo complicity for anti-China war and the traditional submissiveness of the Japanese people are the factors which will facilitate the Japan's readiness for war.

 

The impact of Japan's remilitarization and its readiness for the second holy war makes East Asian countries, especially China and Korea, nervous and uneasy and this will intensify armament race leading to regional security instability.

 

Japan's readiness for war is likely to increase the probability of TA-China war. The TA-China is likely to destroy the military capability and the economies of Taiwan, China, Japan and South Korea. These countries will be losers. Only the U.S. will be the winner.

 

Now, if Japan survives the TA-China war and if it still has military striking capability left, Japan will attack North Korea with the support of South Korea and the U.S.

 

If attacked, North Korea will hit back, even with nuclear weapons. Here, again, there is no guarantee that Japan will win.

 

In short, the dream of restoring the pre-1945 Japan and conduct the second holy war is likely to remain a dream, no more, no less.

 

The drive for the second holy war is indeed an adventure which is "Seppuk adventures." This is the legacy of Sinzo Abe.

 

Soon, Japan will become a "normal country" with its regular armed forces and the right to conduct war. If the "normal Japan" has the ambition of conducting holy war 2.0, it is likely that Japan will be damaged so badly that it will be difficult to recover.

 

To conclude, it is sincerely hoped that "Normal Japan" would abandon the dream of ruling again Asia by force and, instead cooperate with China, Korea and other countries for the creation of "East Asia Co-Prosperity and Co-Security Sphere" which will respect the national sovereignty of countries of the region, promote the regional peace and assure the regional prosperity.

 

 

<저작권자(c) Budongsancanada.com 부동산캐나다 한인뉴스, 무단 전재-재배포 금지 >

chungheesoo
chungheesoo
102339
9193
2023-01-05
The Legacy of Shinzo Abe: Road to Self-Destructive Harakiri Holy War 2.0(5)

 

Remember! The history can repeat itself. The dreadful nightmare of Japanese holy war can happen again. May God save Korea !

 

Joseph H. Chung, Ph.D. (정희수), Professor of Economics, Quebec University in Montreal (UQAM)

 

 

(지난 호에 이어)

 

"We have to fight and not give up. Otherwise, we will live under dictatorship, freedom and democracy will not exist." (Prof. Setsu Kobayashi, leading constitutional expert in Japan)

 

Only the ordinary Japanese can stop another holy war. But, I am afraid they cannot. This is another factor allowing further militarization of Japan.

 

2. Impact of Holy War 2.0 Readiness

The impact of the possible second holy war is the fear and the concern of those countries which were victims of the Japanese brutal aggression and those individuals who know the true face of Japanese leaders.

 

For example, the Journal, Foreign Policy, has made some pertinent observation regarding Abe's ambition.

 

"The most rigorous accounts of Abe's life make it plain that his political raison d'etre was the restoration of Japan, its former glory: all else was but a means to that end." (foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/14)

 

There is another interesting observation on Shinzo Abe.

 

"Fuelled by nostalgia for military glory, ultra-nationalism has sought to restore not only Japan's armed forces, but its beautiful traditional national character." (Lisa Torio: jacobin.com/2017/03)

 

These two statements show how much the Japanese conservative leaders led by Abe are yearning to restore the mighty and glorious Japan of yesterdays.

 

Unfortunately, Shinzo Abe's ambition stirs malaise and fear of those who know the NMRG's ambition. Here are some of statements showing such fear and malaise.

 

"Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is setting the country on course for remilitarization much to the exasperation of Japanese wartime enemies, China and Korea." (astute news.com/2017/05/)

 

"With the Abe administration reaching for empire, a movement without an anti-imperialist framework, it is ill equipped to challenge the far right remilitarization campaign." (Lisa Torio: jacobin. com/2017/03). This statement makes allusion to the return of Japanese imperialism.

 

"They are thinking about Asia before the war when Japan was leader of Asia. They want to repeat that." (Prof. Setsu Kobayashi)

 

"The world will not be fooled. It only conjures up the ghost of Japan once again. The last time the Japs talked about a Great East Asia co-prosperity Sphere, it turned into a horrible nightmare for many of its neighbours."(soc.cu/ture.china narratives)

 

Gabriel Rodrigues has made some interesting comments.

 

"A twenty-first century Japanese fascism will take drastically different from what it did in the 1930s, but there is no doubt it constitutes a major threat to East Asia and Japan itself."

 

"China should be more afraid of Japanese military than the American." (Chi Wang, consultant of US-China Trade for H.W. Bush administration)

 

"South Korea nominally Japan's alley views a resurgent Japan is a greater threat to its national security than China or even North Korea." (Gabriel Rodrigues.auth.jacobinmag.com/2020/ 10/)

 

I made rather lengthy quotations to show how Japan's remilitarization and war readiness could be the object of concern in China and Korea. The war readiness of Japan will end up necessarily with armament race which will eventually lead to shooing war with no winners.

 

 

3.  Scenario of Holy War 2.0

My scenario of the second holy war is focused on the troublesome relations between Washington and Tokyo. To put it in plain English, Washington needs Japan's military muscle to destroy China, while Japan needs Washington to repeat the adventure of a new version of the East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere.

 

So far, Washington has been handling well the Japanese NMRG so that Japan's military power should not be strong enough to threaten America.

 

American has not forgotten the sneaky murderous attack against Pearl Harbour, nor have the Japanese forgotten holocaust of Hiroshima-Nagasaki.

 

The trouble is this. Joe Biden is pathologically obsessed to destroy China.  But, the dilemma for Biden is the fact that even with national defence budget of almost USD 800 billion, American military power is not good enough to hit China alone. Biden needs Japan's military support.

 

Shinzo Abe and his NMRG friends know it. They are willing to go long way to destroy and rule China or Korea in complicity with Washington. Biden will support Japan's further militarization despite the danger of Japan's becoming American enemy, if conditions allow.

 

Now, the key factor in the Sino-American war is the role of Taiwan. Washington is facing difficult choice regarding Taiwan. It must be pointed out that Taiwan is Washington's fixed aircraft carrier sitting in front door of China; it is the best defence line against China. If China attacks Taiwan, Washington will lose such strategic defence line.

 

However, the ultimate objective of anti-China policy is to destroy China. But, at the moment, Washington does not have the military capability to destroy China. Therefore, Washington waits until its two proxy military powers, Japanese armed forces and South Korean armed forces, especially the Japanese armed forces, become strong enough to destroy China for the U.S. It may take five years for Japan to become super military power.

 

Under such situation, I envisage the following scenario.

 

The first target of Japan's holy war 2.0 will be China. If Japan come out of China war with military capability strong enough, then the second target will be North Korea.

 

There are two reasons for North Korea not being the first target of the holy war. One is the possibility of intervention of China and even Russia to help North Korea. The other is Washington's priority is the destruction of China not the killing of North Korea which has little meaning to Washington. (다음 호에 계속)

 

 

 

<저작권자(c) Budongsancanada.com 부동산캐나다 한인뉴스, 무단 전재-재배포 금지 >

chungheesoo
chungheesoo
101965
9193
2022-12-22
The Legacy of Shinzo Abe: Road to Self-Destructive Harakiri Holy War 2.0(4)

 

Remember! The history can repeat itself. The dreadful nightmare of Japanese holy war can happen again. May God save Korea !

 

Joseph H. Chung, Ph.D. (정희수), Professor of Economics, Quebec University in Montreal (UQAM)

 

 

(지난 호에 이어)

 

1.5 Washington-Tokyo Complicity

There is another factor which pushes Japan to contemplate another holy war. It is the relationship between warmongering Washington and Japan's NMRG led by Kishi Nobuske - Shinzo Abe line political and economic force.

 

In fact, the Washington-Tokyo complicity can be a big factor for the return of pre-1945 Japan. The following is some aspects of such complicity.

 

First, Washington seems to encourage Japan's remilitarization.

 

WSJ: Patrick McCabe wrote "Japanese remilitarization is nothing more than Beijing narrative."

 

Kurt M Campbell Biden's top advisor said "Japan's constitutional reinterpretation and military modernization is Chinese propaganda." (quoted:auth.jacobinmag.com/2021/10/)

 

Second, Japan's lobbying campaign looks very effective. The following statement attests to it.

 

"American strategists are taken in by a far-right charm offensive (of Japan) and fail to understand their danger of what they are toying with" (ibid)

 

"The US foreign policy staff have deep connection to Japanese hawk thin tanks including the Center for Strategies and International Studies (CSIS) and the Center for A New American Security (founded by Kurt Campbell).

 

Third, However, there are voices warning Washington's encouragement of Japan's remilitarization.

 

"Any movement committed to preventing war and building transnational solidarity must consider the threat of Japan's remilitarization and United States' role in encouraging it, empowering and arming Japan's far right could be worst mistake in the pivot to Asia yet." (Gabriel Rodrigues, auth.jacobinmag.com/2020/10)

 

Fourth, But, Washington needs Japan to share the burden of containing China.

 

"Washington wants Japan to ensure that the United States doesn't shoulder the burden of policing the seas alone…and come to the United States aid in a possible military confrontation with China." (foreignpolicy.com: August 15, 2015)

 

Ned Price, White House spokesman was quoted.

 

"We also value Prime Minster Abe's assurance of Japan's interest to expand its contribution to international peace and prosperity in years to come." "But in East Asia where the memory of Japan's behaviour during World War II still rings fresh, it is anything but." (foreignpolicy.com: August 15, 2015)

 

As far as I am concerned, Washington's reliance on Japan for its hegemonic battle against China is needed because of the failure of other existing measures. Since the Obama era, Washington has been trying to contain and bash China through Asia-Pivot, TPP, CPTPP, Quad, AUKUS and several bilateral trade or security alliances and partnerships, but none has worked to Biden's satisfaction. This is one of the reasons for asking Japan to play more proactive role in the containment of China.

 

Thus, Washington's invitation to Japan to play more roles in the Sino-American hegemonic war is an important factor for Japan's preparation for war.

 

"It is important to know that the US-Japan alliance is for good of Asia" (Shinzo Abe quoted by KBS Documentary, September 30, 2006)

 

This means that the joint hegemonic rule by Japan-U.S. is good for Asia. Is Abe sure that Asian countries share such imperialistic view of his?

 

"Without the aid of Japan, the US cannot assure security cooperation in Asia" (High ranking official of the US Department of Defence, KBS Documentary, September 30, 2006)

 

To sum up, Washington encourages Japan to be ready for the proxy war, while Japan welcomes this opportunity for realization of its dream of restoring the power and glory of pre-1945 imperial and military Japan.

 

1.6 Japanese People's Submissiveness

There is another factor which facilitates Japan's war readiness. It is the relationship between the Japanese leaders and the Japanese people.

 

The relations between the elite leaders and the ordinary Japanese people are akin to what I call the "Samurai-Peasant relations". We see often in movies and history books the absolute authority of Samurai over peasants. It is reported that, during the Tokugawa Era, the Samurai represented about 10% of the population.

 

But, 90% of the population were utterly powerless vis-a-vis mere 10% of the population of Samurai. In such situation, the Samurai looked down the peasant as inferior and sub-human. The current situation is not very different. The elite leaders are behaving like Samurai, while the ordinary Japanese people are acting like peasants.

 

Listen to what Professor Nakano had to say about the way the leaders think of the ordinary people.

 

"They (leaders) think that the kids and adults are being brainwashed by themselves blame and sense of shame in their history. They are romantic, they are irrational. They live their own world so they lack strategic thinking." (Professor Koichi Nakano Sophia University)

 

If the people feel guilty for what Japan did during WWII, they are rational, not irrational; it should be rather the elite group who should feel guilty. Since they do not feel guilty, they are irrational.

 

It is certain that the people being rational would object another holy war. Unfortunately, their view will be totally ignored, because the leaders (Samurai) ignore the wish of people (peasant).

 

An incidence which dramatically illustrated the Samurai-Peasant relations took place during the Tokyo Summer Olympics in 2019. The world saw that 90% of the Japanese people were asking the government to abandon the Olympics or postpone it. But the government of Suga completely ignored the people' wish.

 

Professor Kobayashi was urging the people to stop the remilitarization of Japan. (다음 호에 계속)

 

 

 

<저작권자(c) Budongsancanada.com 부동산캐나다 한인뉴스, 무단 전재-재배포 금지 >

chungheesoo
chungheesoo
101776
9193
2022-12-15
The Legacy of Shinzo Abe: Road to Self-Destructive Harakiri Holy War 2.0(2)

 

Remember! The history can repeat itself. The dreadful nightmare of Japanese holy war can happen again. May God save Korea !

 

Joseph H. Chung, Ph.D. (정희수), Professor of Economics, Quebec University in Montreal (UQAM)

 

 

(지난 호에 이어)

 

The NMRG has been trying to restore the State Shinto. Already it is taught at schools.

 

The State Shinto is, perhaps, the most weaponized religion in the world. It is the religion which made the "kamikaze pilot" to throw away the young lives for the glory of "den-no-hei-ka" (the emperor).

 

Shinto has returned and the NMRG led by the Kishi Nobuske-Shinzo Abe line force will be soon able to transform Shinto into State-Shinto.

 

In 1969, the Shinto Association for Spiritual Leadership was established. It is the political arm of the Association of Shinto Shrines which has 80,000 members. There are Shinto shrines in every town and many households have family shrines.

 

The political weight of Shinto is reflected by the fact that 99% of 2016 cabinet ministers are members of the Association. In fact, Shinto has become de facto State Shinto. Moreover, the Shinto Association is closely tied to the Nippon Gaigi through the Society of Defence Japan

 

The spread of State Shinto will end up with the mobilization of Japanese people who will fight for the glory of the emperor. So, Shinto is an important strategic weapon for holy war 2.0.

 

1.3 Further Militarization

Since the 2000s, various institutions and laws were established in order to make Japan a "normal country" capable of conducting war far from Japan. Most of these institutions and laws were initiated by Shinzo Abe and his fellow members of the NMRG.

 

Remember that Shinzo Abe was prime minister of Japan twice, 2006-2007 and 2012-2020.

 

In 2007, the National Defence Agency was promoted to the status of Ministry of National Defence.

 

In 2013: the National Security Council was created in order to better plan and coordinate wars.

 

In 2013: the Secrecy Law was passed to control ant-war movement.

 

In 2014, Japan put the end to the self-imposed arms embargo.

 

In 2015, the National Diet passed a law allowing Japan to undertake "collective defence" by virtue of which Japan can send its armed forces abroad and participate in war undertaken by allies.

 

In 2022, both lower house and the upper house obtained two-third of seats needed to amend the peace constitution. There remains the popular referendum requiring two-third of popular votes allowing the process of undertaking the elimination of Article 9 of the peace constitution.

 

The media has been talking a lot about Japan's remilitarization. But, what is happening now is not remilitarization; it is further militarization for war readiness.

 

Japan is already the third military power in Asia; it is highly militarized already. It did spend in 2020 as much as USD 50 billion compare to USD 40 billion in South Korea. In other words, Japan is more than remilitarized. Japan has been strengthening the striking capability of its armed forces.

 

Moreover, as we saw in the past, Japan can rapidly convert the civil industries into military industries. Japan can become, sooner than we think, a super military power threatening neighbouring countries including Korea and China.

 

Japan has two aircraft carriers. It has created the amphibious units to undertake amphibious attack against foreign country. It has developed long-range missile reaching even China. Japan has the capability to conduct anti-submarine warfare.  It has Boeing V-22 Osprey and Global hawk drones.

 

The striking capability of the Japanese armed forces (nominally SDF) is great enough to stir up the fear of another pan-Asian war.

 

What Japan is preparing now is something far beyond its militarization; Japan is suspected by many for its preparation of its holy war 2.0.

 

In reality, Japanese military power can soon become super military power capable of hitting China with support of the U.S. and even ROK armed forces.

 

1.4 Lobbying Campaign

Another strategy of Japan's war preparation is the lobbying (bribe) campaign. Japan is one of the countries extremely sensitive to its image; it wants to show to the world that it is very democratic, peace loving, non-racist and big donor to international organizations.

 

Above all, Japan has been pouring out money to persuade the world that what it did during the Pacific War was good for Asian countries, that the Nanking Rape never happened and that the beastly raping of 250,000 poor Korea girls was a fiction.

 

What is surprising is that the media of the West seldom raise the issues of comfort women and the Nanking Rape. This is the results of the brilliant bribe diplomacy of Japan. In the U.S., some of the major think tanks, university research centers and NGOs are fatly funded by Japan.

 

In 2021, Harvard University law professor Mark J. Ramseyer wrote an article in the International Review of Laws and Economics claiming that the crime of comfort women did not happen. More than three thousand North American university professors of the Korean origin published a long statement asking the journal not to publish the article. Harvard University published it nonetheless.

 

Professor Ramseyer was awarded the Order of the Rising Sun for his contribution for the promotion of Japanese interests. It is suspected that lobbying by Japan might have led to the publication of the article.

 

The media praises Japan as most democratic country. But, Japan has been ruled every year by the same party, the LDP, since 1957 except five years. Is it possible, in a truly democratic country, for the same party to rule for so long?

 

The media of the West seldom report on racial discrimination in Japan. But, Japan is the most racist country among developed countries.

 

What is troubling is that, due to Japan's aggressive bribe campaign, the world may overlook the danger of possible Japan's holy war 2.

 

At any rate, Japan's lobbying campaign can be a very effective tool for the preparation of holy war 2.0.  (다음 호에 계속)

 

 

 

<저작권자(c) Budongsancanada.com 부동산캐나다 한인뉴스, 무단 전재-재배포 금지 >

chungheesoo
chungheesoo
101583
9193
2022-12-08
The Legacy of Shinzo Abe: Road to Self-Destructive Harakiri Holy War 2.0(2)

 

Remember! The history can repeat itself. The dreadful nightmare of Japanese holy war can happen again. May God save Korea !

 

Joseph H. Chung, Ph.D. (정희수), Professor of Economics, Quebec University in Montreal (UQAM)

 

 

(지난 호에 이어)

 

Fourth, it demonstrated the ugly face of Japanese racism revealed by the absence of Japanese comfort women and statements of two Japanese soldiers made during court hearings on war crimes.

 

A Japanese soldier said: "I raped these girls, because I am a soldier of the emperor!"

 

Another Japanese soldier said: "These comfort women are just military equipment!"

 

It appears that the NMRG led by Shinzo Abe are the most concerned with the brutal revelation of Japanese racism through the crime against the comfort women. This crime compromises Japan's pretention of being racism free country.

 

The Nanking Rape was also surely one of the worst beastly crimes observed in the history of mankind. It was one of the most violent genocides ever committed in the annals of war.

 

Hundreds of thousands of Nanking residents were killed by canon, machine guns, rifles and Japanese swords. Countless girls, young women and old women were raped in open air in front of family members and neighbours. Most of buildings were destroyed.

 

Now coming back to the crime against the comfort women, Nippon Gaigi has a dilemma. It wants to deny the crime against the poor comfort women. But, to their disappointment, some of the prominent Japanese politicians admitted the crime.

 

In 1992, Koichi Kato, the, chief cabinet secretary, stated this.

.

"Government has been involved in the establishment of comfort stations, the control of those who recruited comfort women, the construction and enforcement of comfort facilities, the management of comfort stations… and that the government wanted to express its sincere apology and remorse to all those who have suffered indescribable hardship as so called wartime comfort women."

 

In 1993, Yohei Kono, former chief secretary of the prime minster office, made the following statement.

 

• The Japanese military was directly or indirectly involved in the establishment and management of comfort women.

• The recruitment of comfort women was entrusted mainly by private recruiters of the comfort women.

• In many cases, they were recruited against their will.

• At times, administrative/military personnel took part in the recruitment.

• They lived in misery at comfort station under a coercive atmosphere.

 

Thus, Kato and Kono made it crystal clear that the sub-human treatment of 250,000 young girls mostly from Korea was carried out not only by the military but also by the administration of Japan. What these two former chiefs of cabinet said was the proof of the beastly atrocity committed to the poor girls by Japan. Kato even offered an apology.

 

In 1995, Tomichi Murayama, former prime minister, said this.

 

"In the hope that no such mistakes be made in the future, I regret in spirit of humility, these un-refutable facts of history and here once again my feeling of deep remorse and state my heartfelt apologies."

 

In 2005, Junichiro Koizumi, former prime minster, made an apology.

 

"Sincerely facing these facts of history, I once again express my feeling of deep remorse and heartfelt apology."

 

Both Murayama and Koizumi were highly respected prime ministers. In fact, Koizumi was Shinzo Abe's boss.

 

But, incredible thing happened. Despite the public statement of these politicians admitting the historical fact of comfort women, the Nippon Gaigi and Abe deny the historical fact.

 

Since 2015, in numerous occasions, Shinzo Abe flatly denied the existence of the crime. At another occasion, he said that the comfort women came to the comfort camp voluntarily. In other occasions, he claimed that there was no coercion. In other occasions, he said that these women were prostitutes.

 

Many have wondered and still wondering why Shinzo Abe cannot accept the historical fact. What he said amounts to saying that those politicians who made apology including his boss, Koizumi, were lying.

 

As pointed out above, for the NMRG led by Shinzo Abe, the admission of the crime against the comfort women means the recognition of un-holiness of the first holy war making it impossible to justify and glorify it. If the first holy war is not holy, it is difficult to conduct second holy war.

 

What is troublesome is the fact that most of the Japanese people are not aware of the crime against the comfort women due to the very effective campaign of the non-existence of the crime. The NMRG led Shinzo Abe has succeeded in hiding the historical fact from the Japanese people.

 

By hiding from the Japanese people the crime against the comfort women, Nippon Gaigi led by Shinzo Abe has made a good start in preparing holy war 2.0.

 

 

1.2 State Shinto (Shintoism)

The preparation of Japan's holy war 2.0 includes spiritual and religious war readiness. State-Shinto provides such readiness.

 

Shinto is a shamanic belief widely practiced for centuries in Japan. It has consisted in asking kami (god) to help for the solution of daily human life problems. There are tens of thousands of kamis in Japan. But, the most revered kami is Amaterus Omikami, the goddess who founded Japan.

 

Sinto was made national religion during the Meiji Era and it lasted until 1945. The most important Shinto policy was the 1890 Imperial Prescript of Education which made it compulsory to teach Shinto at schools.

 

I was myself educated in Shinto and I know about its devastatingly powerful impact on the mind and the soul of the people.

 

In Shinto (or Shintoism), the emperor is the linear descendent of goddess Amaterus Omikami. Hence, the emperor is divine.

 

And, the reason of being Japanese is to devote mind and body for the glory of the emperor and obey government which carries out the wish of the emperor. (다음 호에 계속)

 

 

 

<저작권자(c) Budongsancanada.com 부동산캐나다 한인뉴스, 무단 전재-재배포 금지 >

chungheesoo
chungheesoo
101392
9193
2022-12-01
The Legacy of Shinzo Abe: Road to Self-Destructive Harakiri Holy War 2.0(1)

 

Remember! The history can repeat itself. The dreadful nightmare of Japanese holy war can happen again. May God save Korea!

 

Joseph H. Chung, Ph.D. (정희수), Professor of Economics, Quebec University in Montreal (UQAM)

 

 

Introduction

The American military government left Japan in 1952 leaving behind the 1948 peace constitutions intended to prevent Japan from ever rising again as imperial military power. But, the irony of the political fate was such that the U.S. had to ask its hated former mega-enemy to give hand to fight communism.

 

Washington was looking for a leader to fight communism for the U.S. It chose Kishi Nobuske as the post-war leader for Japan. Kishi was known as the "Showa Monster" for his merciless racism, his cruelty, his inhuman way of exploiting Chinese and Koreans to promote the interest of Japan in Manchuria in the 1930s.

 

He was also right hand man of Tojo Hideki during WWII; he tried his best to kill Americans.

 

Kishi was A-Class war criminal, but he avoided hanging for his potential utility to promote American interests in Japan. He spent three years in prison and, in 1957, he became prime minister and built the foundation needed for the control of the post-war destiny of Japan.

 

Kishi and the surviving former leaders of the Japanese empire refused to admit Japanese unconditional surrender and had the dream of reviving the glory and power of Japan.

 

This dream was inherited by Kishi's grandson, Shinzo Abe and his group which I qualify as the Neo-Meiji Restoration Group (NMRG).

 

The Japanese hegemonic war in East Asia in the period 1910-1945 is called the "holy war" driven by Shinto nationalism. And it is most likely that the NMRG has been preparing another holy war (holy war 2.0).

 

This paper is interested in examining the following issues. To begin with, in the first section, this paper examines how Japan is preparing the possible holy war 2.0. In the second section, the paper discusses the impact of holy war 2.0 on neighbouring countries. Then, in the third section, scenarios of holy war 2.0 are presented. There will a short section of conclusion.

 

• Preparation for Holy War 2.0

• Impact of Holy War 2.0

• Scenarios of Holy War 2.0

• Conclusion

 

1. Preparation of Holy War 2.0

The following are the strategies for war readiness

• Role of the Nippon Gaigi

• State Shinto

• Further militarization

• Lobbying Campaign

•Washington-Tokyo complicity

•Japanese people's submissiveness

 

1.1 Role of the Nippon Gaigi

To prepare holy war 2.0, Japan must justify holy war 1.0 which took place during the first half of the twenty's century.

 

The justification of the first holy war was needed in order to persuade the Japanese people to accept and actively support the second holy war.

 

The justification of holy war 1.0 has been promoted by the most far-right and the most influential organization known as the Nippon Gaigi (Japan Conference).

 

Nippon Gaigi is a huge think tank for the NMRG. It was established in 1981 and it has as many as 40,000 members most of whom are parts of the elite group of the Japanese society; it has 47 prefecture chapters and 230 local chapters.

 

The following amazing figures attest to its power. For instance, no less than 90% of Shinzo Abe's ministers were its members; as many as 50% of law makers are its members. Shinzo Abe was its advisor.

 

The Nippon Gaigi is claiming this.

•Japan has never surrendered to the allied armed forces; the Pacific War is still continuing.

•The Tokyo War Criminal Court was not legitimate.

•The invasion of Japan into Korea, Manchukuo and Chine was intended to liberate Asians from the West's imperialism and civilize the inferior people in Korea, Manchukuo and China.

•Nippon Gaigi denies the existence of the Nanking Rape and the crime of raping Comfort Women.

 

If there is any incidence which prevents Japan from justifying its holy war is the crime against the "comfort women".

 

In particular, for Japan, it is not easy to admit its crime against the comfort women, because it was the most unholy event. Therefore, to justify and glorify the holy war 1.0, the crime against the comfort women should not have existed, at least in the mind of the Japanese people who should fight for the holy war 2.0.

 

That is why the story of the crime against the comfort women is taken out from Japanese school history text books. The media is also strictly watched to avoid any mention of the crime. In fact, some years, ago a college professor in a college in Hokkaido wrote an article about the comfort women. He was fired on the same day.

 

The campaign of cover-up of the crime against the comfort women is so effective that the great majority of Japanese people, especially, the young generations are unaware of the crime. This is the result of the cover-up job of the Nippon Gaigi and the NMRG led by Shinzo Abe.

 

The interesting question is why the war mongering Japanese leaders are so sensitive to and so fearful about the comfort women crime. The answer lies in the fact that the crime was extremely brutal hellish human right violation.

 

What the world saw was something which can happen in the most hellish hell. What the world saw makes you feel ashamed to share this earth with the people who committed such a crime. When you see the images of young girls buried alive in mass graves, you cry with anger, sorrow and despair.

 

This crime had the following terrible characteristics.

 

First, it was most beastly cruel sexual torturing of poor girls ever recorded. In average, the poor girls had to be raped as many as 20 times a day.

 

Second, the number of victims was beyond imagination; no less than 250,000 women were victims.

 

Third, the horrible crime lasted during the whole period of the Pacific War. It was the longest collective raping ever recorded in the history of collective raping. (다음 호에 계속)

 

 

 

<저작권자(c) Budongsancanada.com 부동산캐나다 한인뉴스, 무단 전재-재배포 금지 >

chungheesoo
chungheesoo
101208
9193
2022-11-24
Legacy of Shinzo Abe: Corruption and Hopeless Japanese Economy(5.끝)

 

The corruption culture and the wrong leadership in Korea can lead to the same economic fate as in Japan

 

Joseph H. Chung (정희수), Ph.D. Professor of Economics, Quebec University in Montreal

 

 

 (지난 호에 이어)

 

4. The Structural Weakness of the Japanese Economy

 

There were major structural problems of the Japanese economy.

•Losing global competitiveness of major corporations.

•Increasing inequality of income distribution.

•Decreasing active population.

 

In the period, 2005-2011, the fall of global market share of major corporations was as follow: Toyota, from 51% to 41%; Honda, from 39% to 29%; DRAME memory from 39% to 9%.

 

Moreover in the period 2001-2011 the rate of profit of major corporations fell as follows: Mazda, from 4.3% to 2.8%; Toyota, from 9.9% to 2.0%; Honda, from 8.5% to 2.9%.

 

The dramatic loss of global competitiveness and profit of these major corporations was not cyclical; it was structural. The feasible explanation is the Zaiteck which allowed Japanese corporations to neglect investments in costly technology development and make quick money through asset speculation, especially commercial real estate speculation.

 

What Abenomics should have done was the liquidation of insolvent firms instead of bailing out them with money generated by the fiscal policy and the monetary policy. These companies were the Zombie companies, that is, good for nothing companies. It is most likely that these zombie companies were the friends of the corrupted oligarchs. It is also possible that the part of the bailout-money went into the personal pockets of the members of the corruption community.

 

The successful structural adjustment was the policy applied by President Kim Dae-jung of Korea during the financial crisis of 1997-1998. President Kim undertook bold structural adjustment of Chaebols which were responsible for the crisis. President liquidated a great number of insolvent Chaebols; he forced the Chaebols to specialize themselves and improve global competitiveness; he forced the Chaebols to be more transparent in accounting; he forced the Chaebols to stop circular financing.

 

As the result of this policy, Korea could pay back its date to IMF before debt maturity.

 

The widening income gap for decades between the rich and the poor was another structural disease of the Japanese economy.

 

This is partly due to inter-related neo-liberalism and corruption culture. The two most central parts of economic neo-liberalism is the decreasing power of the government and limitless competition. To be competitive, the firm must save labour cost and material cost. To save labour cost, wage should not increase meaning decreasing workers' income. To save material cost, cheap intermediate goods were imported leading to the decline of domestic production of these goods and this invites decrease of workers' income.

 

On the other hand, limitless competition means decreasing number of surviving winners. The combination of all these factors invites unequal income distribution in favour of the rich. The government can make the income distribution more equal through transfer income and other income assistance programs. But, in Japan, the corruption culture prevented the government from adopting such policy.

 

As a result, as time went by, the income distribution was getting worse. That is, the domestic consumer demand which accounts more than 60% of the domestic demand was bound to fall.

 

One of the reasons for the failure of Abenomics was, precisely, the weak domestic consumer demand due to unequal income distribution in favour of the rich. In fact, the average income of ordinary Japanese people has been frozen and has fallen for decades.

 

True, a small part of the fiscal policy money and monetary policy money went to the ordinary people. But, the consumer did not spend on the purchase of goods and services; they saved for the uncertain future.

 

Another structural problem of the Japanese economy is the increasing number of the aged who now represent almost 30% of the population. This means decreasing number of working population. Remember that GDP is the number of working population multiplied by the worker's production of goods and services.  

 

The Japanese population will decrease from 126 million in 2019 to 100 million in 2050. Now, the aged population of 65 + increased from 17.4% in 2000 to 28% in 2019, while the active population of the age group of 15-64 fell from 67.5% to 59.3% in 2019.

 

This change in the demographic structure of the population is shared by most of the developed countries. In these countries, the solution has been immigration. In average, in OECD countries, immigrants account for 12% of the population as against 1.6% in Japan. The government of Japan had tried to boost immigration of people, but, it has failed mainly because of the racism which has been also responsible for Japan's imperialism in the past and at present.

 

The tradition of people's submission to authorities and the popular priority given to stability and fear of changes can be another structural problem. Since the 1960s, the world seldom saw massive political protest movement against the government in Japan.

 

Moreover, even if they do, the government just ignore them. We saw this in 2021 during the Tokyo Summer Olympics. Almost 90% of the population were against or the postponement of the Games. But, the Suga government just ignored it. What was more incredible was the fact that the Japanese people did not go any further. This explains why LDP has kept the power for so long despite, the corruption of the oligarchs.

 

5. Conclusion

 

To sum up, the decade-long stagnation of the Japanese economy can be attributable to the loss of corporative global competitiveness, worsening income distribution leading to weakening domestic demand, the falling number of working population and the absence of organized protests against the wrong doings of the oligarchs These are all structural problems and the possibility to overcome them is low due to the corruption culture dominated by the oligarchs.

 

The government of Fumio Kishida may try to revive the economy. He many envisage means to solve the decades-long ailment of the Japanese economy through remilitarization. It may provide temporary stimuli to the economy, but in the long run, it cannot assure the sustained growth of the economy. What is even worse is the possibility that it will lead to wars and destroy the basis of the economy.

 

Fumio Kishida may try to tackle some of the structural problems of the Japanese economy. In fact, he said that more equal distribution of income is needed for the recovery of the Japanese economy. But, this requires that he will survive as prime minister. We saw how vulnerable and unstable the position of prime minister is in Japan.

 

Kishida was appointed by Shinzo Abe, because Abe could exert his influence on Japanese politics through Kishida. In other words, the probability of Kishida's survival as prime minster depends on how much he can carry on economic policy set up by Abe.

 

Shinzo Abe and his friends of the oligarchy have avoided the needed structural adjustment, which would harm the interest of the oligarchy. Therefore, as long as Kishida continues Abe's policy, he may remain as prime minister for a while. On the other hand, if he tries his own policy different from Abe's policy, it is likely that he will be promptly replaced.

 

Under these conditions, the decades-long stagnation of the Japanese economy will continue.

 

But, it is my hope that Kishida succeeds with his own economic policy and revive the Japanese economy not only for Japan but the world.

 

 

 

 

 

 

<저작권자(c) Budongsancanada.com 부동산캐나다 한인뉴스, 무단 전재-재배포 금지 >

chungheesoo
chungheesoo
100987
9193
2022-11-17
Legacy of Shinzo Abe: Corruption and Hopeless Japanese Economy(4)

 

The corruption culture and the wrong leadership in Korea can lead to the same economic fate as in Japan

 

Joseph H. Chung (정희수), Ph.D. Professor of Economics, Quebec University in Montreal

 

 

 (지난 호에 이어)

 

3. Asset Bubble and Corruption

 

The primary cause of the ailment of the Japanese economy was the asset bubble of the 1980s. After three decades of phenomenal growth of the Japanese economy, 1980s were the decade where the oligarchs could enjoy the fruits of Japan's economic success. As we saw above, the Japanese GDP reached 40% of American GDP and even threatened the economic hegemony of the U.S.

 

In the 1980s, money was plenty due to the global integration of finance, low interest rate, the access to the huge postal savings and the money generated by exports of goods and services.

 

The easy access to money led the oligarchs to pour money into speculative stocks and real estate. There were undoubtedly illegal and immoral transactions of assets by the oligarchs, but due to the complicity of the corrupted judicial system, these illegal or immoral activities could have been ignored or overlooked. This would have surely expanded and intensifies the asset speculative activities and inflated the asset bubbles.

 

The outcome of the asset speculation had produced asset bubble never seen in modern time. For example, the value of stocks which had accounted for 60% of GDP in 1985 increased to 152% of GDP in 1989. In the period 1985-1989, the Nikkei Stock index rose from  13,000  to 39,000.

 

Large corporations made quick money through "Zaitech" (method of making quick money). In fact, almost 40% to 50% of the income of large corporations came from Zaitech activities.

 

The land value of the Imperial Palace was large enough to buy the entire land of the State of California. Between 1980 and 1989, the value of commercial buildings rose six times, while that of residential properties rose by four times.

 

As for the value of real estate, the value of Japanese real estate was four time of that of the U.S. despite the fact that the Japanese territory was mere 3.7% of that of the U.S.

 

I am just scandalized to learn that such insane thing could happen.  How in the world the Japan could have let this happen? The simple answer to this question is clear enough. It was the short-sighted egoistic greed of the ruling oligarchs led by the LDP. There is another disturbing question.

 

It was obvious that the asset bubble would sooner or later bring a catastrophe. Then, why did somebody not warn the coming danger?

 

Surely, there were competent economists in Japan; surely there were asset market experts in the country of rising sun. Why in the world, they did not speak up and warn the clearly foreseeable tragic outcome?

 

There are two possible answers. Either, they kept silence, because they became rich through asset speculation Or, they had no access to media to publicize their view. What had to come has happened.

 

In short, the asset babble was the results of the oligarchs' corruption culture.

 

The bubble was too large to be held; it had to explode. It did explode with thunder in 1989. This is what happened. Given the danger of sky rocketing asset bubble, the Bank of Japan jacked up the interest rate from 2% to 6% in 1989.

 

Well, that was it. The panic hit the entire Japan. The price of stocks in the Tokyo stock market fell by 60%. The real estate price had free fall of 80%.

 

The national policy designed to fight the bubble explosion was also very problematic, if not a complete failure. The obvious results of the bubble explosion were economic recession. Countless companies went bankrupt; the value of dwelling went below the due amount of mortgage debt; banks had to cope with bad loans. The fall of asset price was just too deep to recover.

 

Thus, the recession and even deflation was imminent. The Bank of Japan should have cut down the interest rate immediately, but it cut down the interest from 6% to 0% only in 1994. God knows why the Bank of Japan waited so long before reacting to the recession. It was too little and too late.

 

The Japanese economy just could not come out of the deepening economic slowdown. The fundamental ailment of the post-bubble Japanese economy was something no country had experienced before; it required something bold as policies. But, Japan applied the usual economic policies comprising the fiscal policy and the monetary policy.

 

But, they did not work. Japan had to wait for the saviour. The saviour came in 2012 on back of the white horse with three arrows raped in the bag of Abenomics.

 

In Abenomics, the first arrow was the monetary policy; the second arrow, the fiscal policy; and the third arrow, the structural adjustment.

 

But, Abenomics failed for the simple reason that the policy relied almost exclusively on the expansion of money supply through traditional fiscal policy and monetary policy.

 

In fact, the money provided by public debt was as much as 250% of DGP. The money coming from the policy of Quantity Easing (QE) policy represented as much as 88% of GDP as of 2019.

 

The fiscal arrow flew too far and missed the target. The monetary arrow went too far and went to the wrong direction. The structural adjustment arrow even failed to leave the quiver.

 

The deluge of money was not able to revive corporate investments, exports of goods and services and domestic demand. You ask why?

 

The answer was that the ailment of the Japanese economy was not a problem of the shortage of money. The root of the problem was the structural problems.

 

Abenomics did not handle the deep structural malaise of the Japanese economy. True, on paper, third policy of the Abenomics was the policy of structural adjustment, but this policy went nowhere largely due to the corruption culture of the oligarchs. (다음 호에 계속)

 

 

 

<저작권자(c) Budongsancanada.com 부동산캐나다 한인뉴스, 무단 전재-재배포 금지 >

더보기
위로가기